Latest poll figures

Published on October 22, 2004 By drmiler In Politics

This is just a quickie. These are the ltest poll figures from the KABA site (Keep And Bear Arms)

Thanks for voting

Poll Results:

For whom will you cast your ballot for President?

George Bush 72.5% 1542 votes
John Kerry 2.6% 55 votes
Ralph Nader 0.5% 10 votes
Michael Badnarik 21.0% 447 votes
Other 3.4% 73 votes

Comments

Texas Wahine

on Oct 22, 2004

He he he . . . this is a rundown of the gun vote, drmiler?

drmiler

on Oct 22, 2004

Reply #1 By: Texas Wahine - 10/22/2004 1:11:55 AM
He he he . . . this is a rundown of the gun vote, drmiler?

Why yes, it is! I think you'll find most gun owners will vote for Bush. Especially now that the NRA is backing Bush.

Texas Wahine

on Oct 22, 2004

Somehow I'm not at all surprised by this news . . .

sandy2

on Oct 22, 2004

Somehow I'm not at all surprised by this news . . .

nor me...

blogic

on Oct 22, 2004

http://2.004k.com/national is a great site for keeping up on the various polls. This link points to the national polls, but you'll see they also have lots of state ones.

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html is also good, but be aware they tend to the Likely Voter numbers, not the Registered Voter numbers, and that's statistically controversial, for reasons I won't go into here.

In general, it's expected that Bush won't do that much better in votes than he does in the polls right before election day, because undecided nearly always break 2-1 to the challenger. That means Bush needs to get 50% or higher in these polls to be confident. Karl Rove has said he want Bush to be at least four points ahead in the polls on election day, for precisely this reason.

drmiler

on Oct 22, 2004

Reply #5 By: blogic - 10/22/2004 10:11:05 PM
http://2.004k.com/national is a great site for keeping up on the various polls. This link points to the national polls, but you'll see they also have lots of state ones.

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html is also good, but be aware they tend to the Likely Voter numbers, not the Registered Voter numbers, and that's statistically controversial, for reasons I won't go into here.

In general, it's expected that Bush won't do that much better in votes than he does in the polls right before election day, because undecided nearly always break 2-1 to the challenger. That means Bush needs to get 50% or higher in these polls to be confident. Karl Rove has said he want Bush to be at least four points ahead in the polls on election day, for precisely this reason.

You need to be aware of this site also.

Link

blogic

on Oct 22, 2004

Yes, Electoral-Vote is a good site.

You'll see they actually predict the outcome of the race here, using the assumption that undecided will favor Kerry as they've favored the challenger in nearly all presidential elections (where the were an incumbent).

These electoral vote counts can change a lot day to day, so I wouldn't take them very seriously. Try not to get too excited when Kerry's ahead, or too bummed when Bush is.

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